The chart, live.
QQQ is the tradable proxy for the Nasdaq-100 and the instrument we chart here, a clean, unambiguous license. The structural work is done on NQ futures; QQQ tracks it tick for tick and is what most readers can actually pull up.
![QQQ weekly chart, dark theme, with Elliott Wave degree labels: the [5] high, the W-X correction underway, and the (A) target.](assets/QQQ_Weekly_WaveLabeled_Dark.png)
Flat, and comfortable being flat.
NQ FLAT · QQQ FLAT
NQ printed a marginal higher high, 29,720 overnight, then faded to a capped, red close at 29,568.50, a higher high that couldn't hold. The index is finishing a corrective phase, not starting a fresh impulse: that's a "wait" tape, not a "chase" tape. A week ago the internals leaned bullish, five of the eight biggest names rising; this week that lean collapsed back to a coin flip as Microsoft and Amazon rolled over. The cross-validation composite across the eight heaviest names came in at −0.006, dead neutral. The conviction lives in single names now, not the aggregate. Until the index picks a level, flat is the honest position.
Two paths, weighted
- 40%: Scenario D, primary (bearish). The June 3 top holds and this bounce sits inside a larger decline. New lows below 27,200 are still owed. Wait for the breakdown to confirm rather than buying the bounce.
- 34%: Scenario K (bullish). The correction already ended at the July low and this is a fresh advance. Confirmation comes on a reclaim of 30,339.75.
- 26%: the rest. A new record above 31,104.50 that never ended the advance (10%), a deeper generational top (10%), and refuted residuals. Forty against thirty-four is a coin flip with a slight bearish lean.
Where it confirms or kills
| Level (NQ / QQQ) | Price | Means |
|---|---|---|
| Reclaim / confirm up (QQQ) | 734.58 | Bull case (K) takes over, the hinge |
| Reclaim / confirm up (NQ) | 30,339.75 | The single most important number in the book |
| Decision / no-trade band | 28,927–30,340 | Between the two edges it's noise |
| Breakdown (NQ / QQQ) | 28,927.25 / 702.70 | Sustained close below confirms the decline's first leg |
| New record (NQ) | 31,104.50 | A new high above the June record ends the bear debate |
NQ 29,568.50 · QQQ $719.05 at the Sep 4 close. Structural confidence 35 (NQ) / 38 (QQQ).
The tells I'm watching
- A reclaim above NQ 30,339.75 (QQQ 734.58): flips the primary to the bull case (K) and opens a run at the record; FLAT to LONG.
- A sustained close below NQ 28,927.25 (QQQ 702.70): confirms the decline's first leg and hands the tape to the bears toward 27,927 then the July low at 27,200.
- A new record above NQ 31,104.50: the advance never ended; the bear debate is over.
- The lagging Mag 7 turning up to join Nvidia, Meta and SpaceX: internals confirming the index instead of splitting it.
- The war, oil, and the Sep 16 Fed meeting are the more likely triggers than the tape itself.
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