What a setup actually looks like.
These are drawn from the September 4 cross-validation: real levels, shown to illustrate the format. The honest headline first: there is no high-conviction index setup. NQ and QQQ are 40/34 coin flips, so the conviction lives in single names. Every setup carries the same anatomy: direction, thesis in a sentence, the exact levels, and how much conviction the structure earns. Educational and illustrative only. See the disclaimer at the foot of the page.
Sell the failed bounce Sep 4
Chart · Sep 4 daily →
The cleanest bear in the book: a confirmed five-wave decline to a new low at $329.29 with a fifth still owed. The bounce to $340.85 was corrective and failed. A trend, not a coin flip.
Ride the breakout Sep 4
Chart · Sep 4 daily →
The coiled range broke up. A confirmed five-wave advance to $619.46 made a higher high that killed both bear counts outright: you can't make a higher high inside a correction lower.
New-high continuation Sep 4
Chart · Sep 4 daily →
Made a new high at $234.76 (motive-up continued) and sits just under its line-in-the-sand at $236.54. Clear it and a genuine new record run opens.
Buy the dip (bull lean) Sep 4
Chart · Sep 4 daily →
Killed one bear count above $368.60 and impulsed to $384.04, then tagged its target and reversed 6%, now 55/45. Buying the bull primary's dip with a hard stop.
Third-wave advance Sep 4
Chart · Sep 4 daily →
Confirmed its third wave up by exceeding the first-wave high: the textbook signal buyers are in control. But barely 55 sessions of history and a large share-lockup unlock in December: treat it with humility and size it small.
Short the bounce (bear lean) Sep 4
Chart · Sep 4 daily →
The index expression of the bear primary (Scenario D). Note the conviction ceiling: the index is 40/34, so this is a lean, not a fist. Patience until a level breaks.
The index mirror: no trade Sep 4
Chart · Sep 4 daily →
QQQ mirrors NQ and it is a coin flip. No high-conviction index setup: no trade until a reclaim above the hinge or a breakdown below it. Flat is a position.
Why the numbers aren't arbitrary.
Every level on a setup card traces back to something. The entry sits where a wave completes or an anchored VWAP lines up. The stop sits at the price that would invalidate the count: cross it and the thesis is objectively dead, so you're out, no debate. The targets are the measured moves and Fibonacci projections the structure implies, scaled T1 through T5 so you bank profit on the way instead of hoping for the home run.
The conviction dots are the honest part. Three tools agreeing (Elliott, Wyckoff, and AVWAP all pointing the same way) earns a high number. One tool leading and the others neutral earns a low one. A low-conviction setup isn't a bad trade; it's a small one. That distinction is the whole game.
Live context.
The primary structure is worked on QQQ (clean license); the Mag 7 names are the cross-validation. Below: the QQQ daily, plus a quick read on two of the leaders. NQ futures carry the structural work referenced in the cards above.
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